No sourced payback period, break-even year, or lifetime-savings figure exists for this brief, and we're not going to invent one — it depends on your specific electricity rate, system cost, financing, and export compensation, none of which has a single national answer. What we can give you is the sourced pieces that actually determine the answer for your situation.
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What determines whether it pays off, if not a fixed number?
The rate you're paid for excess power is one of the biggest, least-understood variables. There is no national rule — export compensation is set state by state and, within a state, utility by utility, through net metering (credited at the full retail rate), net billing (a separate, usually lower, sell rate), or avoided-cost pricing. The same rooftop system can be worth materially different amounts in two neighboring states, or two utilities in the same state, purely because of this policy difference — not the equipment.
What about the federal tax credit — doesn't that make it worth it?
That calculation changed materially in 2025. The 30% federal residential credit was repealed for any expenditure where installation completes after December 31, 2025. Anyone evaluating a system now should not include a present-tense 30% federal credit in their arithmetic. See our tax credit page for the exact rule and the carryforward provisions that still apply to pre-2026 installs.

How much does the equipment actually degrade over its life?
Modestly, and predictably. DOE's empirical estimate is about 0.5% per year; NREL's more conservative modeling assumption is 0.7% per year. The performance warranty standard, per NREL/Sandia/SunSpec research, typically guarantees output at 80% of the original rating after 25 years — a real, contractual figure worth weighing against your own usage horizon.
Sources
4 cited- Export compensation mechanisms: NREL, Energy Compensation Mechanisms for Distributed Generation, last updated 2026-02-20 (checked 2026-08-18).
- Federal credit repeal: CRS Insight IN12611, 2025-09-25 (checked 2026-08-18).
- Degradation rates: DOE/GO-102021-5627, December 2021; NREL/TP-7A40-92536, January 2025 (checked 2026-08-18).
- Performance warranty standard: NREL/TP-7A40-73822, December 2018 (checked 2026-08-18).
