United States

Solar panel cost over time

Residential solar fell 65-70% since 2010 but has been flat since 2021. Sourced NREL and LBNL data on the actual cost trend, not a projection.

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Have solar prices actually fallen over time?

Substantially, over the long run. NREL's benchmark shows residential system costs falling 65% between 2010 and 2024 — from $9.23/W to $3.25/W. LBNL's separate market-price data describes a $9–11/W decline across customer segments over two decades, a 70–80% real reduction.

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Is the price still falling right now?

Not meaningfully. Since 2021, costs have "remained relatively flat, with ups and downs caused by market dynamics like policy changes, tariffs, and supply chain constraints," per NREL. Year-on-year change from 2023 to 2024 was essentially flat — within about ±$0.1/W in inflation-adjusted terms. The steady decline of the 2010s has not continued.

What was the pace of decline before it flattened?

Since 2014, the pace had slowed to roughly $0.1–0.2/W per year — already gradual compared with the earlier, steeper drop. The bulk of the historical decline happened earlier in the 2010s; the past several years look more like a plateau than a continuation of that trend.

Has the cost breakdown shifted over time, even while the total is flat?

Yes — soft costs (permitting, labor overhead, customer acquisition, margin) hit an all-time high share of 68% in 2017 for residential systems, and sit at just over half (50.5%) of the total in the Q1 2024 benchmark. Utility-scale soft-cost share, for comparison, stabilized around 35–40% after 2015 — residential has consistently carried a higher soft-cost burden than larger installations.

Sources

3 cited

Long-run decline and recent flat trend: NREL/TP-7A40-92536, Documenting 15 Years of Reductions in U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Costs, January 2025 (checked 2026-08-18).
Market-price decline over two decades: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, U.S. Distributed Solar and Storage — 2025 Data Update, October 2025 (checked 2026-08-18).
Soft-cost share history: NREL/TP-7A40-92536, January 2025 (checked 2026-08-18).

How it works

From “is it worth it?” to a number you can check

Start with your power bill

The kilowatt-hours you used over the last year is the number every honest quote is built from. Without it, any price is a guess.

See what the roof can actually make

Pitch, orientation and shade decide how much of that usage a system can realistically cover. This is the step door-to-door pitches skip.

Put the quotes on one basis

Cash, loan and lease are three different products. Compare system size and total price first, then compare the financing separately.

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How we work

What to expect from this site

Every figure here carries its source and the date it was checked.

Answer first, then the working

Each page opens by answering its own question in a couple of sentences, then shows the arithmetic underneath for anyone who wants to check it.

Ranges, not one confident number

Solar pricing moves with the roof, the state, the utility and the financing. A single national figure fits almost nobody, so we publish the spread our sources support.

We say when the maths does not work

A shaded roof on a low tariff can be a poor buy. That is a legitimate answer to the question and you will find it here rather than a reason to keep reading.

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Questions

Frequently asked

The questions homeowners actually ask before they sign anything.

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Should I wait for prices to drop further before installing?

The sourced data shows prices have been roughly flat since 2021, not continuing to decline — so waiting on the assumption that costs will keep falling the way they did in the 2010s isn't supported by the recent trend.

How much cheaper is solar now than 15 years ago?

NREL's benchmark shows a 65% decline for residential systems between 2010 and 2024 ($9.23/W to $3.25/W). LBNL's separate market-price data describes a 70–80% real reduction across customer segments over roughly two decades.

Why did prices stop falling after 2021?

NREL attributes the recent flat trend to "market dynamics like policy changes, tariffs, and supply chain constraints" rather than to any single cause.

Is any part of the cost still going down?

Not clearly, per the sourced data — year-on-year change from 2023 to 2024 was essentially flat (within about ±$0.1/W), and the brief doesn't have a sourced component-level trend showing continued decline.

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